Journalists
Constantine writes about shipping, trade, Greece and Turkey. He started work at breakingviews in February 2008. Constantine received a BA in History from the University of Chicago in June 2007.
The country’s bonds and bank stocks are under pressure again. The fear is that Greek lenders, loaded with high-yielding government debt, have become too reliant on cheap ECB funding. Europe needs to work with Greece to plan an orderly exit from the situation.
The EU is set to criticise Greece for failing to rein in its budget deficit, which is now expected hit to 12% of GDP – double previous estimates. Investors don’t care right now, but they will eventually. Greek politicians need to become more forthright and less complacent.
The once troubled UK telco has transformed itself into two profitable, geographically distinct businesses. A demerger announcement has come at the right time. But management has messed up by accompanying it with a profit warning instead of detail on how the split will work.
Amazon’s shares are soaring, Apple is enjoying record sales and IPOs are in the works. For some, it feels like 2000 again. But while Breakingviews.com’s Economic Spot-check of financial newsflow is back at its series high, the index points to an economy only just stabilising.
Big bonuses are back and industrial production is finally picking up after last year’s post-Lehman collapse. But higher unemployment and the drag from loan losses kept the Breakingviews.com Economic Spot-Check flat at 2.4 last week. That’s an unsteady recovery, not a boom.
Turkish authorities have thwarted an appeal by the country’s largest media group against a $3.3bn fine. The government says it’s only cracking down on tax evasion. Dogan sees it as an attack on the free press. The situation must be settled fairly and legally – and be seen to be.
Creditors in Alliance Bank, the central Asian country’s fourth largest, may agree to convert some loans into equity. That’s a global first, but don’t expect a rush of imitators. It’s just that the only alternative – a liquidation of the bank – looked even worse.
The eurozone joined the "positive GDP" club last week, but the Breakingviews Economic Spot-check index didn’t rise from its below-Stability reading. There’s no sign of a post-recession burst of rapid growth. For now, cost-cutting and prudence remain the dominant themes.
GDP is growing again in most of the world, but consumers are squeezed and companies remain cautious. The Breakingviews.com Economic Spot-check rose slightly last week. But it is still stuck between Slower Decline and Stability. The recession hasn’t been thrown off completely.
Versace is slashing jobs, Nintendo’s Wii sales have tumbled, the outlook for US house prices remains cloudy. The Breakingviews.com Economic Spot-check of financial newsflow is off its series high. Good news is still being heavily diluted by a continued stream of really bad data.
The struggling bus and coach operator has received an all-share merger proposal from rival Stagecoach, after a takeover bid fell through in the eleventh hour. The news may have stopped a rout in the National Express share price. But it doesn’t address the company’s real problems.
Swedish banks are aghast at Latvia’s proposals to limit mortgage repayments to current property values. But the scheme could make devaluation more acceptable to Latvians. And a devaluation-cap combination has a rough justice. Everyone was foolish and everyone will suffer.
Company bosses are warning it will take years to get back what was lost in the recession. Their pessimism helped keep the Breakingviews.com Economic Spot-check at 2.4, still closer to Slow Decline than Stability. If a V-shaped recovery is coming, it’s certainly not evident yet.
Brazil’s markets joined in Rio’s well-deserved victory celebrations: the Bovespa was the world’s best performing index on Friday. The market reaction is warranted. But for the investments to really pay off, they should be used to stimulate the city and country for the long term.